期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 42, 期 5, 页码 1560-1567出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063238
关键词
extreme; Pareto; probability; precipitation; weather station
资金
- NSF [ATM-0236898, OCE0960770, OCE1419306]
- California Climate Change Center - California Energy Commission's Public Interest Energy Research Program
- NOAA Office of Global Programs under the California and Nevada Applications Program
- Department of the Interior via the Southwest Climate Science Center
The probability tail structure of over 22,000 weather stations globally is examined in order to identify the physically and mathematically consistent distribution type for modeling the probability of intense daily precipitation and extremes. Results indicate that when aggregating data annually, most locations are to be considered heavy tailed with statistical significance. When aggregating data by season, it becomes evident that the thickness of the probability tail is related to the variability in precipitation causing events and thus that the fundamental cause of precipitation volatility is weather diversity. These results have both theoretical and practical implications for the modeling of high-frequency climate variability worldwide.
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