期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 42, 期 13, 页码 5468-5476出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2015GL064546
关键词
Earth system models; climate change ensemble; natural climate variability
资金
- Department of Energy
- Penn State Center for Climate Risk Management
- National Science Foundation through the Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) under NSF [GEO-1240507]
- NSF [SES-1049208]
- Direct For Social, Behav & Economic Scie
- Divn Of Social and Economic Sciences [1049208] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
The uncertainties surrounding the initial conditions in Earth system models can considerably influence interpretations about climate trends and variability. Here we present results from a new climate change ensemble experiment using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) to analyze the effect of internal variability on regional climate variables that are relevant for decision making. Each simulation is initialized from a unique and dynamically consistent model state sampled from a similar to 10,000year fully coupled equilibrium simulation, which captures the internal unforced variability of the coupled Earth system. We find that internal variability has a sizeable contribution to the modeled ranges of temperature and precipitation. The effects increase for more localized regions. The ensemble exhibits skill in simulating key regional climate processes relevant to decision makers, such as seasonal temperature variability and extremes. The presented ensemble framework and results can provide useful resources for uncertainty quantification, integrated assessment, and climate risk management.
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