Air traffic predictability framework - Development, performance evaluation and application

The performance of the Air Traffic Flow & Capacity Management (ATFCM) function relies fundamentally on the accuracy of air traffic predictability. Characterising this accuracy and assessing the potential benefits of increased accuracy is fundamental to enhance the performance of the Air Traffic Management (ATM) system and identifying areas that require improvement. This paper develops a framework to assess air traffic predictability. It validates the proposed framework with real operational data and applies it to the Maastricht Upper Area Control centre. The paper develops a methodology to assess the benefits of the deployment of enhanced predictability including capacity, resulting from improved operational concepts such as Airport-Collaborative Decision Making (A-CDM). (C) 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.