期刊
JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS AND MANAGEMENT
卷 68, 期 1, 页码 111-123出版社
ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1016/j.jeem.2014.01.002
关键词
Climate change; Integrated assessment model; Value of information; Uncertainty; Climate sensitivity
We estimate the value of information (VOI) for three key parameters of climate integrated assessment models (IAMs): marginal damages at low temperature anomalies, marginal damages at high temperature anomalies, and equilibrium climate sensitivity. Most empirical studies of climate damages have examined temperature anomalies up to 3 degrees C, while some recent theoretical studies emphasize the risks of climate catastrophes, which depend on climate sensitivity and on marginal damages at higher temperature anomalies. We use a new IAM to estimate the VOI for each parameter over a range of assumed levels of study precision based on prior probability distributions calibrated using results from previous studies. We measure the VOI as the maximum fixed fraction of consumption that a social planner would be willing to pay to conduct a new study before setting a carbon tax. Our central results suggest that the VOI is greatest for marginal damages at high temperature anomalies. Published by Elsevier Inc.
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