期刊
出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.proeps.2014.06.003
关键词
Rainfall-Triggered Landslides; Hydrological Modeling; Uncertainty; Probability
资金
- University of Pennsylvania's Luquillo Critical Zone Observatory
- National Science Foundation
- ARRA
- Division Of Earth Sciences
- Directorate For Geosciences [1331841] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
This study proposes a methodology to account for the uncertainty of hydrological and mechanical parameters in coupled distributed hydrological-stability models for shallow landslide assessment. A probabilistic approach was implemented in an existing eco-hydrological and landslide model by randomizing soil cohesion, friction angle and soil retention parameters. The model estimates the probability of failure through an assumed theoretical Factor of Safety (FS) distribution, conditioned on soil moisture content. The time-dependent and spatially distributed FS statistics are approximated by the First Order Second Moment (FOSM) method. The model was applied to the Rio Mameyes Basin, located in the Luquillo Experimental Forest in Puerto Rico. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V.
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