期刊
INSURANCE MATHEMATICS & ECONOMICS
卷 78, 期 -, 页码 339-350出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV
DOI: 10.1016/j.insmatheco.2017.09.011
关键词
Life expectancy forecasting; Mortality modelling; Best-practice trends; Sex-gap; Time series models
类别
资金
- SCOR Corporate Foundation for Science
- AXA Research Fund
Life expectancy is highly correlated over time among countries and between males and females. These associations can be used to improve forecasts. Here we propose a method for forecasting female life expectancy based on analysis of the gap between female life expectancy in a country compared with the record level of female life expectancy in the world. Second, to forecast male life expectancy, the gap between male life expectancy and female life expectancy in a country is analysed. We present these results for various developed countries. We compare our results with forecasts based on the Lee-Carter approach and the Cairns-Blake-Dowd strategy. We focus on forecasting life expectancy at age 0 and remaining life expectancy at age 65. (C) 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.
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