Hybrid Fuzzy-Probabilistic Approach to Supply Chain Resilience Assessment

In this paper, the existing models of supply chain resilience assessment are extended by incorporating ripple effect and structure reconfiguration. Ripple effect mitigation control is vital for supply chain risk management from positions of structural resilience and recoverability. The research approach is based on a hybrid fuzzy-probabilistic approach. The genome method is applied with the objective of including the structural properties of supply chain design into resilience assessment. A supply chain design resilience index is developed, and its computation and application are demonstrated. The results suggest a method of comparing different supply chain designs regarding the resilience both to disruption propagation and with recovery consideration. It also allows the identification of groups of critical suppliers whose failure interrupts supply chain operation.