Predictors of Injurious Falls and Fear of Falling Differ: An 11-Year Longitudinal Study of Incident Events in Older People

Objective: The objective of the study is to identify the intrinsic, psychosocial and lifestyle factors, which, over time, predict the incidence of having a fall requiring medical attention (injurious fall) or of acquiring a fear of falling (FOF). Method: Data from 1,000 participants in the Melbourne Longitudinal Studies on Healthy Ageing (MELSHA, 1994-2005) were analyzed using cox regressions and hazard ratios. Results: The predictors of injurious falls (n = 900, events = 200) were increasing age, slower gait speed, and being depressed. Main predictors of developing a FOF (n = 855, events =117) were increasing age, cognitive impairment, reduced social activity, and gender. A history of falls at baseline did not predict acquiring a FOF nor did FOF predict a future fall. Discussion: The profile of the person who will have an injurious fall differs from the profile of the person who develops a FOF and should be considered when designing interventions.