期刊
GROUP DECISION AND NEGOTIATION
卷 24, 期 2, 页码 333-358出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s10726-014-9392-8
关键词
Foresight support systems; Technology foresight; MCDM methods
In this paper, we demonstrate the design and use of a foresight support system (FSS) combining two multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods. Traditionally, foresight activities involves Delphi, focus group, or Estimate-Talk-Estimate techniques to collect opinions of an expert panel. Often, these techniques are not computerized and data visualization is rudimentary. Our highly-interactive FSS solves a number of inherent issues during the data collection, analysis, and results visualization processes. Despite that MCDM methods have been recommended for technology foresight, a validation with a real field experiment was still required. To evaluate our approach and FSS, we conducted a foresight exercise for the Swiss mobile payments market. Our research confirms that the use of MCDM methods supported with a computerized tool can enhance the foresight processes and results.
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