期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 45, 期 2, 页码 1069-1078出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2017GL076500
关键词
record warm global temperature; ocean heat release; El Nino; model simulation and projection
资金
- NOAA [NA13OAR4310128]
- NSF [1304083, 1513411]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Division Of Earth Sciences [1304083] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
- Office of Polar Programs (OPP)
- Directorate For Geosciences [1513411] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
A 0.24 degrees C jump of record warm global mean surface temperature (GMST) over the past three consecutive record-breaking years (2014-2016) was highly unusual and largely a consequence of an El Nino that released unusually large amounts of ocean heat from the subsurface layer of the northwestern tropical Pacific. This heat had built up since the 1990s mainly due to greenhouse-gas (GHG) forcing and possible remote oceanic effects. Model simulations and projections suggest that the fundamental cause, and robust predictor of large record-breaking events of GMST in the 21st century, is GHG forcing rather than internal climate variability alone. Such events will increase in frequency, magnitude, and duration, as well as impact, in the future unless GHG forcing is reduced.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据