Expectations Are More Predictive of Behavior than Behavioral Intentions: Evidence from Two Prospective Studies

Understanding the gap between people's behavioral intentions and their subsequent behavior is a key problem for behavioral scientists, but little attention has been paid to how behavioral intentions are operationalized. Test the distinction between asking people what they intend to do, as opposed to what they expect they will do. Two studies were conducted in the domains of alcohol consumption (N = 152) and weight loss (N = 141). Participants completed questionnaires assessing their behavioral intentions, expectations, and self-efficacy at baseline; alcohol consumption/weight were assessed at both baseline and follow-up. In study 1, expectations were more predictive of alcohol consumption than behavioral intentions, controlling for baseline alcohol consumption and self-efficacy. In study 2, changes in expectations were more predictive of weight loss than changes in behavioral intentions, controlling for baseline weight and self-efficacy. The findings support a potentially important distinction between behavioral intentions and expectations.