Increased likelihood of induced seismicity in highly overpressured shale formations

Fluid-injection processes such as disposal of saltwater or hydraulic fracturing can induce earthquakes by increasing pore pressure and/or shear stress on faults. Natural processes, including transformation of organic material (kerogen) into hydrocarbon and cracking to produce gas, can similarly cause fluid overpressure. Here, we document two examples from the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin where earthquakes induced by hydraulic fracturing are strongly clustered within areas characterized by pore-pressure gradient in excess of 15 kPa m(-1). Despite extensive hydraulic-fracturing activity associated with resource development, induced earthquakes are virtually absent in the Montney and Duvernay Formations elsewhere. Statistical analysis suggests a negligible probability that this spatial correlation developed by chance. This implies that, in addition to known factors such as anthropogenic pore-pressure increase and proximity to critically stressed faults, high in situ overpressure of shale formations may also represent a controlling factor for inducing earthquakes by hydraulic fracturing. On a geological timescale, natural pore-pressure generation may lead to fault-slip episodes that regulate the magnitude of formation overpressure.