An analysis of recent observed climate trends and variability in Labrador

Recent warm winters have negatively impacted many rural Labrador residents, raising concerns over regional climate change and variability. To better understand these events, the recent temperature record was examined in detail using atmospheric reanalyses and relevant station data. In addition to quantifying seasonal and annual trends, the influence of major climate drivers is explored and their contributions to recent anomalies are estimated. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) are identified as the dominant sources of variability, with the winter NAO producing the largest and most predictable anomalies. These drivers are associated with decadal-scale variability in the region, including unusually cool conditions from the 1980s through late 1990s and a subsequent shift to warmer conditions. Removing the influence of the NAO and other climate drivers greatly reduces the magnitude of recent warm anomalies. However, temperature trends in the residual data are amplified in most seasons, with winter residual trends four times larger than the raw winter data. This suggests that climate change, previously obscured by natural variability, is exerting a significant influence on Labrador. Although climate change likely contributed relatively little to recent extreme events, it is gradually raising the probability of similar future events.