期刊
ACCIDENT ANALYSIS AND PREVENTION
卷 81, 期 -, 页码 232-242出版社
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.aap.2014.12.024
关键词
Maritime safety; Navigational environment factors; DEA Model; Spatial sequential frontiers; Grey relational analysis
类别
资金
- China Scholarship Council (CSC), Marie Curie Actions (FP7-PEOPLE-IRSES)
- National Natural Sciences Foundation of China (NSFC) [51139005]
- Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China [20130143120014]
This paper aims to analyze the effectiveness of maritime safety control from the perspective of safety level along the Yangtze River with special considerations for navigational environments. The influencing variables of maritime safety are reviewed, including ship condition, maritime regulatory system, human reliability and navigational environment. Because the former three variables are generally assumed to be of the same level of safety, this paper focuses on studying the impact of navigational environments on the level of safety in different waterways. An improved data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is proposed by treating the navigational environment factors as inputs and ship accident data as outputs. Moreover, because the traditional DEA model cannot provide an overall ranking of different decision making units (DMUs), the spatial sequential frontiers and grey relational analysis are incorporated into the DEA model to facilitate a refined assessment. Based on the empirical study results, the proposed model is able to solve the problem of information missing in the prior models and evaluate the level of safety with a better accuracy. The results of the proposed DEA model are further compared with an evidential reasoning (ER) method, which has been widely used for level of safety evaluations. A sensitivity analysis is also conducted to better understand the relationship between the variation of navigational environments and level of safety. The sensitivity analysis shows that the level of safety varies in terms of traffic flow. It indicates that appropriate traffic control measures should be adopted for different waterways to improve their safety. This paper presents a practical method of conducting maritime level of safety assessments under dynamic navigational environment. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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