期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
卷 238, 期 -, 页码 918-930出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2018.03.016
关键词
WRF/CMAQ; Transportation sector emissions; Technology Driver Model; SPEW-Trend; Climate change; Dynamical downscaling
资金
- National Science Foundation Earth System Model (EaSM) program at North Carolina State University [AGS-1049200]
- United States Department of Agriculture EaSM program at the University of Chicago/Argonne National Laboratory [2012-67003-30192]
- Office of Science of the U.S. DOE [DE-AC02-05CH11231]
In Part II of this work we present the results of the downscaled offline Weather Research and Forecasting/Community Multiscale Air Quality (WRF/CMAQ) model, included in the Technology Driver Model (TDM) approach to future U.S. air quality projections (2046-2050) compared to a current-year period (2001-2005), and the interplay between future emission and climate changes. By 2046-2050, there are widespread decreases in future concentrations of carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), volatile organic compounds (VOCs), ammonia (NH3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), and particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter <= 2.5 gm (PM2.5) due mainly to decreasing on-road vehicle (ORV) emissions near urban centers as well as decreases in other transportation modes that include non road engines (NRE). However, there are widespread increases in daily maximum 8-hr ozone (O-3) across the U.S., which are due to enhanced greenhouse gases (GHG) including methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2) under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A1B scenario, and isolated areas of larger reduction in transportation emissions of NOx compared to that of VOCs over regions with VOC-limited O-3 chemistry. Other notable future changes are reduced haze and improved visibility, increased primary organic to elemental carbon ratio, decreases in PM2.5 and its species, decreases and increases in dry deposition of SO2 and O-3, respectively, and decreases in total nitrogen (TN) deposition. There is a tendency for transportation emission and CH4 changes to dominate the increases in O-3, while climate change may either enhance or mitigate these increases in the west or east U.S., respectively. Climate change also decreases PM2.5 in the future. Other variable changes exhibit stronger susceptibility to either emission (e.g., CO, NON, and TN deposition) or climate changes (e.g., VOC, NH3, SO2, and total sulfate deposition), which also have a strong dependence on season and specific U.S. regions. (C) 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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