Economic impacts from PM2.5 pollution-related health effects in China's road transport sector: A provincial-level analysis

Economic impact assessments of air pollution-related health effects from a sectoral perspective in China is still deficient. This study evaluates the PM2.5 pollution-related health impacts of the road transport sector on China's economy at both national and provincial levels in 2030 under various air mitigation technologies scenarios. Health impacts are estimated using an integrated approach that combines the Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model, a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and a health model. Results show that at a national level, the road transport sector leads to 163.64 thousand deaths per year, increases the per capita risk of morbidity by 0.37% and accounts for 1.43 billion Yuan in health care expenditures. We estimate 442.90 billion Yuan of the value of statistical life loss and 2.09 h/capita of work time loss in 2015. Without additional control measures, air pollution related to the transport sector will cause 177.50 thousand deaths in 2030, a 0.40% per capita increase in the risk of morbidity, accounting for 4.12 billion Yuan in health care expenditures, 737.15 billion Yuan of statistical life loss and 2.23 h/capita of work time loss. Based on our model, implementing the most strict control strategy scenario would decrease mortality by 42.14%, morbidity risk by 42.14%, health care expenditures by 41.94%, statistical life loss by 26.22% and hours of work time loss by 42.65%, comparing with the no control measure scenario. In addition, PM2.5 pollution from the road transport sector will cause 0.68% GDP loss in 2030. At a provincial level, GDP losses in 14 out of 30 provinces far exceed the national rate. Henan (1.20%), Sichuan (1.07%), Chongqing (0.99%), Hubei (0.94%), and Shandong (0.90%) would experience the highest GDP loss in 2030. Implementing control strategies to reduce PM2.5 pollution in the road transport sector could bring positive benefits in half of the Chinese provinces especially in provinces that suffer greater health impacts from the road transport sector (such as Henan and Sichuan).