Prospective improvements in cost and cycle life of off-grid lithium-ion battery packs: An analysis informed by expert elicitations

This paper presents probabilistic estimates of the 2020 and 2030 cost and cycle life of lithium-ion battery (LiB) packs'for off-grid stationary electricity storage made by leading battery experts from academia and industry, and insights on the role of public research and development (R&D) funding and other drivers in determining these. By 2020, experts expect developments to arise chiefly through engineering, manufacturing and incremental chemistry changes, and expect additional R&D funding to have little impact on cost. By 2030, experts indicate that more fundamental chemistry changes are possible, particularly under higher R&D funding scenarios, but are not inevitable. Experts suggest that significant improvements in cycle life (eg. doubling or greater) are more achievable than in cost, particularly by 2020, and that R&D could play a greater role in driving these. Experts expressed some concern, but had relatively little knowledge, of the environmental impact of LiBs. Analysis is conducted of the implications of prospective LiB improvements for the competitiveness of solar photovoltaic + LiB systems for off-grid electrification.