期刊
ENERGY POLICY
卷 120, 期 -, 页码 8-23出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2018.04.073
关键词
Electric vehicle; System dynamics model; Financial support; Emission trade scheme; Scenario analysis
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71401055]
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2015MS19]
- Beijing Social Science Fund [15JDJGB034]
Recently, the energy scarcity and environmental pollution have greatly promoted rapid development of the electric vehicles (EV) industry. In this context, we established a scenario analysis using system dynamics model to analyze the development of EV in China under policy incentives. Four scenarios were set in this paper: scenario 1 (Without any policy), scenario 2 (Only direct policy), scenario 3 (Only indirect policy), scenario 4 (Both direct & indirect policy). It is shown that the EV industry was in preliminary stage in 2010. After a period of development, in 2040, the total amount of EVs will reach 4.03, 8.61, 4.2 and 8.85 million in scenario 1-4. The results indicate that China's EV market penetration is mainly dominated by state policies, especially the financial supports. Reducing the governments' financial supports for EVs will put EV manufacturers at a cost disadvantage in the automobile markets. In addition, because of our emerging carbon market and low average carbon price, participating in carbon trading market cannot promote a rapid growth by stimulating investment passion. In all, cutting the financial supports is not a good option, because the large-scale market penetration still requires the clear and strong policy incentives.
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