Fuel Poverty Potential Risk Index in the context of climate change in Chile

Public housing policies face a challenge in order to meet not only the right to housing, but also an affordable and comfortable use for them. In this context, most of the studies related to fuel poverty are based on a diagnosis of existing conditions, but there is a lack of information focusing on how to predict the risk of fuel poverty in future dwellings considering a context of climate change. This research develops an index to assist policymakers in the decision-making process during the early stages of social housing allocation. The analysis is based on the applicability of adaptive comfort, the influence of climate change, the urban context and the building features. Energy use patterns and the ability to pay utility bills have been also considered for social housing in the Central South of Chile. After that, several future scenarios are discussed considering the probable income and energy inflation rates. The potential risk variables that influence the early stages of design are also discussed. The results reveal that the Fuel Poverty Potential Risk Index is an effective tool to select appropriate housing for the most disadvantaged and vulnerable segments of society, considering the future climate, income and energy price trends.