期刊
ENERGIES
卷 11, 期 3, 页码 -出版社
MDPI
DOI: 10.3390/en11030660
关键词
prediction; multi-model; water demand; short-term prediction
资金
- Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO)
- European Union through FEDER program through the project DEOCS [DPI2016-76493-C3-3-R]
- European Union through FEDER program through the project HARCRICS [DPI2014-58104-R]
This paper presents a multi-model predictor called Qualitative Multi-Model Predictor Plus (QMMP+) for demand forecast in water distribution networks. QMMP+ is based on the decomposition of the quantitative and qualitative information of the time-series. The quantitative component (i.e., the daily consumption prediction) is forecasted and the pattern mode estimated using a Nearest Neighbor (NN) classifier and a Calendar. The patterns are updated via a simple Moving Average scheme. The NN classifier and the Calendar are executed simultaneously every period and the most suited model for prediction is selected using a probabilistic approach. The proposed solution for water demand forecast is compared against Radial Basis Function Artificial Neural Networks (RBF-ANN), the statistical Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), and Double Seasonal Holt-Winters (DSHW) approaches, providing the best results when applied to real demand of the Barcelona Water Distribution Network. QMMP+ has demonstrated that the special modelling treatment of water consumption patterns improves the forecasting accuracy.
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