The association of serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate variability with diabetic retinopathy in Asians with type 2 diabetes: A nested case-control study

Background: Fluctuation of kidney function may signify intra-glomerular microvascular hemodynamic instability. We aim to examine the association of long-term serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate variability with diabetic retinopathy. Methods: We included type 2 diabetes mellitus patients who attended the Diabetes Centre in 2011-2014 and were followed up (median = 3.2 years). Digital colour fundus photographs were assessed for diabetic retinopathy at follow-up. Diabetic retinopathy severity was categorized into non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy and proliferative diabetic retinopathy. We conducted a nested case-control study involving 177 diabetic retinopathy (118 non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy, 50 proliferative diabetic retinopathy) and 327 age- and gender-matched non-diabetic retinopathy. Serum creatinine measured before follow-up visit was obtained (> 3 readings/patient). Variability was calculated as intra-individual standard deviation/root n/(n - 1). Results: Diabetic retinopathy have higher adjusted-serum creatinine-standard deviation than non-diabetic retinopathy [9.1 (4.9-21.6) vs 5.4 (3.4-10.1) mu M, p < 0.001]. After multivariable adjustment, adjusted-serum creatinine-standard deviation was associated with diabetic retinopathy [odds ratio = 1.47, 95% confidence interval (1.02-2.10), p = 0.04]. The area under the curve increased significantly after adding adjusted-serum creatinine-standard deviation [0.70 (0.65-0.75) vs 0.72 (0.68-0.77), p < 0.03]. Proliferative diabetic retinopathy have higher adjusted-serum creatinine-standard deviation than non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy [15.5 (6.6-39.7) vs 7.47 (4.52-17.8) mu M, p < 0.001]. After adjustment, adjusted-serum creatinine-standard deviation remained associated with non-proliferative diabetic retinopathy [1.48 (1.04-2.12), p = 0.03] and proliferative diabetic retinopathy [2.43 (1.34-4.39), p = 0.003; p-trend = 0.002]. Similar findings were observed for estimated glomerular filtration rate variability. Conclusion: Serum creatinine and estimated glomerular filtration rate variability is associated with the presence and severity of diabetic retinopathy independent of intra-individual means. This may inform novel therapeutic strategies aiming to achieve stable renal function in type 2 diabetes mellitus.