Modeling learning and forgetting processes with the corresponding impacts on human behaviors in infectious disease epidemics

This article presents two new mathematical models, an information forgetting curve (IFC) model and a memory reception fading and cumulating (MRFC) model, to examine forgetting and learning behaviors of individuals during an infectious disease epidemic. Both models consider how epidemic prevalence and community behavior-change information may affect agent emotions and subsequently influence an individual's behavior changes during an epidemic. The IFC model utilizes a forgetting curve to process epidemic information, and the MRFC model formulates disease information variations using the Ito diffusion process. Sensitivity analysis and simulation comparisons showed that the MRFC model more accurately describes the epidemic with high lethal rate gets high attention. The author also demonstrated that MRFC model has higher sensitivity parameters and is more flexible on wide ranges of infection rates than the IFC model. However, the IFC model is a better suited for widespread, low-risk mortality epidemics, such as seasonal influenza, the infection information and protective behavior have close relationships among the susceptible population. An agent-based simulation model also developed to mimic the epidemic prevalence of the 2009 Chicago H1N1 using public available historical data sets by IFC model.