期刊
COMPTES RENDUS GEOSCIENCE
卷 350, 期 4, 页码 141-153出版社
ACAD SCIENCES
DOI: 10.1016/j.crte.2018.03.001
关键词
Climate change; Impacts; France; Regional hydrology; Hydrological cycle changes
资金
- French National Research Agency (ANR) [ANR 2011 739 JS56 014 01]
This study deals with the evolution of the hydrological cycle over France during the 21st century. A large multi-member, multi-scenario, and multi-model ensemble of climate projections is downscaled with a new statistical method to drive a physically-based hydrological model with recent improvements. For a business-as-usual scenario, annual precipitation changes generally remain small, except over southern France, where decreases close to 20% are projected. Annual streamflows roughly decrease by 10% (+/- 20%) on the Seine, by 20% (+/- 20%) on the Loire, by 20% (+/- 15%) on the Rhone and by 40% (+/- 15%) on the Garonne. Attenuation measures, as implied by the other scenarios analyzed, lead to less severe changes. However, even with a scenario generally compatible with a limitation of global warming to two degrees, some notable impacts may still occur, with for example a decrease in summer river flows close to 25% for the Garonne. (C) 2018 Published by Elsevier Masson SAS on behalf of Academie des sciences.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据