期刊
JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC DYNAMICS & CONTROL
卷 60, 期 -, 页码 152-165出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2015.09.003
关键词
House prices; Lucas asset-pricing model; Rational expectations; Near rational expectations
类别
We investigate whether expectations that are not fully rational have the potential to explain the evolution of house prices and the price-to-rent ratio in the United States. First, a stylized asset-pricing model solved under rational expectations is used to derive a fundamental value for house prices and the price-rent ratio. Although the model can explain the sample average of the price-rent ratio, it does not generate the large and persistent fluctuations observed in the data. Then, we consider a rational bubble solution, an extrapolative expectations solution and a near rational bubble solution. In this last solution agents extrapolate the future from the latest realizations and the degree of extrapolation is stronger in good times than in bad times, generating waves of over-optimism. We show that under this solution the model not only is able to match key moments of the data but can also replicate the run up in the US. house prices observed over the 2000-2006 period and the subsequent sharp downturn. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据