期刊
OPERATIONS RESEARCH FOR HEALTH CARE
卷 7, 期 -, 页码 122-131出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.orhc.2015.07.003
关键词
Modeling infectious diseases; Dengue; Virus serotype; Multistrain
资金
- Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) [UID/MAT/04106/2013, UID/CEC/00319/2013, PTDC/EEI-AUT/1450/2012]
- FEDER under POFC-QREN
- COMPETE [FCOMP-01-0124-FEDER-028894]
- Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia [PTDC/EEI-AUT/1450/2012] Funding Source: FCT
The first outbreak of dengue occurred in Madeira Island in 2012, featuring one virus serotype. Aedes aegypti was the vector of the disease and it is unlikely that it will be eliminated from the island. Therefore, a new outbreak of dengue fever can occur and, if it happens, risk to the population increases if two serotypes coexist. In this paper, mathematical modeling and numerical simulations are carried out to forecast what may happen in Madeira Island in such a scenario. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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