Multidecadal change in streamflow associated with anthropogenic disturbances in the tropical Andes

Andean headwater catchments are an important source of freshwater for downstream water users. However, few long-term studies exist on the relative importance of climate change and direct anthropogenic perturbations on flow regimes in these catchments. In this paper, we assess change in streamflow based on long time series of hydrometeorological data (1974-2008) and land cover reconstructions (1963-2009) in the Pangor catchment (282 km(2)) located in the tropical Andes. Three main land cover change trajectories can be distinguished during the period 1963-2009: (1) expansion of agricultural land by an area equal to 14% of the catchment area (or 39 km(2)) in 46 years' time, (2) deforestation of native forests by 11%(or 31 km(2)) corresponding to a mean rate of 67 ha yr(-1), and (3) afforestation with exotic species in recent years by about 5% (or 15 km(2)). Over the time period 1963-2009, about 50% of the 64 km(2) of native forests was cleared and converted to agricultural land. Given the strong temporal variability of precipitation and streamflow data related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation, we use empirical mode decomposition techniques to detrend the time series. The long-term increasing trend in rainfall is remarkably different from the observed changes in streamflow, which exhibit a decreasing trend. Hence, observed changes in streamflow are not the result of long-term change in precipitation but very likely result from anthropogenic disturbances associated with land cover change.