Guilty as charged: Nile perch was the cause of the haplochromine decline in Lake Victoria

Debate on the contribution of Nile perch (Lates niloticus) to the demise of Lake Victoria's 500+ endemic haplochromine cichlids centers around the top-down and bottom-up hypotheses. The former suggests Nile perch destroyed the haplochromines, causing the disruption of food chains and nutrient cycling and so initiating the accelerated eutrophication of the lake. The latter proposes that haplochromines suppressed Nile perch by preying on its eggs and fry or competing with juveniles for food. A recent paper argued that accelerated eutrophication caused by a climatic event led to their collapse, allowing Nile perch to explode. However, the Nile perch population grew before haplochromines decreased, and they only collapsed once Nile perch biomass exceeded theirs. The chronology indicates that accelerated eutrophication of the lake followed rather than preceded the haplochromine collapse, suggesting that eutrophication was not its cause. A size-selective predation model developed to support the bottom-up hypothesis is discussed in light of existing data, but does not support the bottom-up hypothesis. It was concluded that the top-down model better fits the data and conforms to the law of parsimony.