期刊
BULLETIN OF MATHEMATICAL BIOLOGY
卷 80, 期 7, 页码 1962-1987出版社
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.1007/s11538-018-0447-x
关键词
Mosquito; Climate change; Periodic delay; Dengue; Basic reproduction ratio; Population dynamics
资金
- NSERC of Canada
Mosquito-borne diseases remain a significant threat to public health and economics. Since mosquitoes are quite sensitive to temperature, global warming may not only worsen the disease transmission case in current endemic areas but also facilitate mosquito population together with pathogens to establish in new regions. Therefore, understanding mosquito population dynamics under the impact of temperature is considerably important for making disease control policies. In this paper, we develop a stage-structured mosquito population model in the environment of a temperature-controlled experiment. The model turns out to be a system of periodic delay differential equations with periodic delays. We show that the basic reproduction number is a threshold parameter which determines whether the mosquito population goes to extinction or remains persistent. We then estimate the parameter values for Aedes aegypti, the mosquito that transmits dengue virus. We verify the analytic result by numerical simulations with the temperature data of Colombo, Sri Lanka where a dengue outbreak occurred in 2017.
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