City-level variations in NOx emissions derived from hourly monitoring data in Chicago

Control on emissions of nitrogen oxides (NO) in the United States of America have led to reductions in concentrations in urban areas by up to a factor of two in the last decade. The Air Quality System monitoring network provides surface measurements of concentrations at hourly resolution over multiple years, revealing variations at the annual, seasonal, day of week and diurnal time scales. A multiple linear regression model was used to estimate the temporal profiles in the NO concentrations as well as the impact of meteorology, ozone concentrations, and boundary layer heights. The model is applied to data from 2005 to 2016 available at 6 sites in Chicago, Illinois. Results confirm the 50% decrease in NOx over the length of the time series. The weekend effect is found to be stronger in more commercial areas, with 32% reductions on Saturdays and 45% on Sundays and holidays; and weaker in more residential areas with 20% reductions on Saturdays and 30% reductions on Sundays. Weekday diurnal profiles follow a double hump with emission peaks during the morning and afternoon rush hours, but only a shallow drop during the middle day. Difference in profiles from the 6 sites suggest that there are different emission profiles within the urban area. Diurnal profiles on Saturdays have less variation throughout the day and more emissions in the evening. Sundays are very different from both weekdays and Saturdays with a gradual increase until the early evening. The results suggest that in addition to vehicle type and vehicle miles traveled, vehicle speed and congestion must be taken into account to correctly quantify morning rush hour emissions and the weekend effect.