期刊
SCIENCE ADVANCES
卷 3, 期 8, 页码 -出版社
AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.aao2277
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资金
- Stanford Center
Goebel et al. question our forecasted response of induced seismicity to reduction of saltwater injection rates in north-central Oklahoma and raise the concern that the probability of future damaging earthquakes may be underestimated. We compare our prediction to earthquake data recorded in the 8 months after publication. Observed seismicity rates and magnitudes agree with the forecast of our model. Our use of a probabilistic model accounts for uncertainties and observed M >= 4.5 to date confirm the conservative nature of our prediction. The realistic parameter range suggested by Goebel et al. is based on a misunderstanding of our statistical model and disagrees with the long-term decay of seismicity in the region.
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