期刊
NATURE ENERGY
卷 2, 期 12, 页码 939-945出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/s41560-017-0032-9
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资金
- European Union [308329]
- ENavi - German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)
Both fossil-fuel and non-fossil-fuel power technologies induce life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions, mainly due to their embodied energy requirements for construction and operation, and upstream CH4 emissions. Here, we integrate prospective life-cycle assessment with global integrated energy-economy-land-use-climate modelling to explore life-cycle emissions of future low-carbon power supply systems and implications for technology choice. Future per-unit life-cycle emissions differ substantially across technologies. For a climate protection scenario, we project life-cycle emissions from fossil fuel carbon capture and sequestration plants of 78-110 gCO(2)eq kWh(-1), compared with 3.5- 12 gCO(2)eq kWh(-1) for nuclear, wind and solar power for 2050. Life-cycle emissions from hydropower and bioenergy are substantial (similar to 100 gCO(2)eq kWh(-1)), but highly uncertain. We find that cumulative emissions attributable to upscaling low-carbon power other than hydropower are small compared with direct sectoral fossil fuel emissions and the total carbon budget. Fully considering life-cycle greenhouse gas emissions has only modest effects on the scale and structure of power production in cost-optimal mitigation scenarios.
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