期刊
ENERGY STRATEGY REVIEWS
卷 17, 期 -, 页码 19-26出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.esr.2017.06.001
关键词
Energy systems decarbonisation; Optimisation energy models; Perfect foresight; Myopic models; TIMES model; Technology diffusion; United Kingdom
资金
- UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) under the Whole Systems Energy Modelling Consortium (WholeSEM) [EP/K039326/1]
- Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council [EP/K039326/1, EP/P022405/1] Funding Source: researchfish
- EPSRC [EP/K039326/1, EP/P022405/1] Funding Source: UKRI
With an application on the UK, this paper shows that myopic planning might result in delayed strategic investments and in considerably higher costs for achieving decarbonisation targets compared to estimates done with perfect foresight optimisation energy models. It also suggests that carbon prices obtained from perfect foresight energy models might be under-estimated. The study was performed using a combination of the standard UK Times Model (UKTM), a perfect foresight, bottom-up, technology-rich cost optimisation energy model, and its myopic foresight version: My-UKTM. This also demonstrates that using perfect foresight optimisation models in tandem with their myopic equivalents can provide valuable indications for policy design. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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