期刊
INFORMATICA
卷 27, 期 3, 页码 625-648出版社
INST MATHEMATICS & INFORMATICS
DOI: 10.15388/Informatica.2016.103
关键词
energy planning; robust optimization; uncertainty characterization; Mixed-Integer Linear Programming
Long-term planning for energy systems is often based on deterministic economic optimization and forecasts of fuel prices. When fuel price evolution is underestimated, the consequence is a low penetration of renewables and more efficient technologies in favour of fossil alternatives. This work aims at overcoming this issue by assessing the impact of uncertainty on energy planning decisions. A characterization of uncertainty in energy systems decision-making is performed. Robust optimization is then applied to a Mixed-Integer Linear Programming problem, representing the typical trade-offs in energy planning. It is shown that in the uncertain domain investing in more efficient and cleaner technologies can be economically optimal.
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