Natural versus human control on subsurface salt dissolution and development of thousands of sinkholes along the Dead Sea coast

One of the most hazardous results of the human-induced Dead Sea (DS) shrinkage is the formation of more than 6000 sinkholes over the last 25years. The DS shrinkage caused eastward retreat of underground brine replaced by fresh groundwater, which in turn dissolved a subsurface salt layer, to generate cavities and collapse sinkholes. The areal growth rate of sinkhole clusters is considered the most pertinent proxy for sinkholes development. Analysis of light detection and ranging, digital elevation models, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar allows translation of the areal growth rate to a salt dissolution rate of the salt layer, revealing two peaks in the history of the salt dissolution rate. These peaks cannot be attributed to the decline of the DS level. Instead, we show that they are related to long-term variations of precipitation in the groundwater source region, the Judea Mountains, and the delayed response of the aquifer system between the mountains and the DS rift. This response is documented by groundwater levels and salinity variations. We thus conclude that while the DS level decline is the major trigger for sinkholes formation, the rainfall variations more than 30km to the west dominate their evolution rate. The influence of increasing rainfall in the Judea Mountains reaches the DS at a typical time lag of 4years, and the resulting increase in the salt dissolution rate lags by a total time of 5-6years.