Social vulnerability assessment of earthquake disaster based on the catastrophe progression method: A Sichuan Province case study

The identification of regions of social vulnerability to earthquake disaster and factors contributing to social vulnerability is significant for effective earthquake disaster risk management. To assess social vulnerability to earthquake disaster, this paper applied a rough set to construct an evaluation model of social vulnerability based on catastrophe progression. Following in-depth literature researches, an assessment model of social vulnerability to earthquake disaster in Sichuan Province, China, based on the catastrophe progression method was established. A rough set attribute reduction method was adopted to eliminate irrelevant social vulnerability indicators and optimize the proposed model. Finally, a catastrophe progression method for social vulnerability to earthquake disaster is developed to overcome the subjectivity of the index weight assignment of social vulnerability indicators in the currently used social vulnerability assessment method. The application of our method to Sichuan Province indicates large regional differences in terms of social vulnerability to earthquake disasters. The results show that the northeastern and central areas of Sichuan Province belong to the high social vulnerability category; in particular, Guangyuan is the most vulnerable region. These findings will provide policymakers with a scientific basis for their earthquake disaster risk management strategies.