期刊
TOURISM MANAGEMENT
卷 59, 期 -, 页码 57-66出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.tourman.2016.07.005
关键词
Tourism demand forecast; Big data analytics; Search query data; Generalized dynamic factor model; Composite search index
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [71373023, 41428101]
- New Start Academic Research Projects of Beijing Union University [Zk10201609]
Researchers have adopted online data such as search engine query volumes to forecast tourism demand for a destination, including tourist numbers and hotel occupancy. However, the massive yet highly correlated query data pose challenges when researchers attempt to include them in the forecasting model. We propose a framework and procedure for creating a composite search index adopted in a generalized dynamic factor model (GDFM). This research empirically tests the framework in predicting tourist volumes to Beijing. Findings suggest that the proposed method improves the forecast accuracy better than two benchmark models: a traditional time series model and a model with an index created by principal component analysis. The method demonstrates the validity of the combination of composite search index and a GDFM. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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