Fatal Drownings in Fiji: An Effective Parsimonious Model That Can Explain the Number of Cases From January 2012 to April 2015

Drowning is a newly comprehended public health concern in Fiji. Defined as the process of experiencing respiratory impairment from submersions or immersion in liquid, drowning has been identified as one of Fiji's 5 leading causes of death for those aged 1 to 29 years. The aim of this article was to develop the most parsimonious model that can be used to explain the number of monthly fatal drowning cases in Fiji. Based on a cross-section of 187 drowning incidents from January 2012 to April 2015, this observational study found the number of monthly drownings in Fiji was significantly affected by monthly rainfall (P = .008, 95% confidence interval = 0.10-0.62) and the number of days comprising public holidays/weekends (P = .018, 95% confidence interval = 0.06-0.60). Furthermore, the multiple coefficient of determination (r(2) = .4976) indicated that almost half the variation in drownings was explained by rainfall and public holidays/weekend periods. Inadequate supervision, an inability to identify or carry out safe rescue techniques, and limited water-safety knowledge were identified as common risk factors. To overcome this preventable cause of death, technically guided interventions need to be actively embedded into a range of government policies and community health promotions, disaster management, and education programs.