Changes in Extreme Precipitation: A Case Study in the Middle and Lower Reaches of the Yangtze River in China

Monitoring extreme climate events is of great importance, mainly due to increasingly severe impacts of extreme climate on nature and humanity. However, the characteristics of extreme climate events, especially extreme precipitation, frequently show complex variations in the context of climate change. Taking the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River (MLR-YR) in China as a case study, extreme daily precipitation during 1961-2012 was analyzed from the aspects of frequency and intensity. The changes in extreme daily precipitation in the MLR-YR were further attributed to several factors, including large-scale circulation, hydrologic engineering and local topography. Our analyses indicate that both frequency and intensity of the extreme daily precipitation in the MLR-YR showed overall increasing trends from 1961 to 2012. The increase could be associated with weakened East Asian summer monsoon in past decades. In addition, inverse trends could also be found locally between the frequency and the intensity. For instance, extreme precipitation intensity revealed an enhanced trend in the western part of the middle reach of the Yangtze River, while extreme precipitation frequency showed decreasing trends in this region. These phenomena could be associated with the effects of some local factors (e.g., lake regulation, hydropower engineering, topography). Our study highlights the important role of local factors on extreme precipitation changes.