Long-term weight-change slope, weight fluctuation and risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in middle-aged Japanese men and women: findings of Aichi Workers' Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to investigate the association of long-term weight-change slopes, weight fluctuation and the risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in middle-aged Japanese men and women. METHODS: A total of 4234 participants of Aichi Workers' Cohort Study who were aged 35-66 years and free of diabetes in 2002 were followed through 2014. Past body weights at the ages of 20, 25, 30, 40 years, and 5 years before baseline as well as measured body weight at baseline were regressed on the ages. Slope and root-mean-square-error of the regression line were obtained and used to represent the weight changes and the weight fluctuation, respectively. The associations of the weight-change slopes and the weight fluctuation with incident T2DM were estimated by Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: During the median follow-up of 12.2 years, 400 incident cases of T2DM were documented. After adjustment for baseline overweight and other lifestyle covariates, the weight-change slopes were significantly associated with higher incidence of T2DM (hazard ratio (HR): 1.80, 95% confident interval (CI): 1.17-2.77 for men; and HR: 2.78, 95% CI: 1.07-7.23 for women), while the weight fluctuation was not (HR: 1.08, 95% CI: 1.00-1.18 for men and HR: 1.02, 95% CI: 0.84-1.25 for women). CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of the presence of overweight, the long-term weight-change slopes were significantly associated with the increased risk of T2DM; however, the weight fluctuation was not associated with the risk of T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men and women.