期刊
HUMAN VACCINES & IMMUNOTHERAPEUTICS
卷 13, 期 9, 页码 2017-2024出版社
TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC
DOI: 10.1080/21645515.2017.1333681
关键词
demand forecast; Typhoid conjugate vaccine; vaccine introduction
资金
- Vi-based Vaccines for Asia (VIVA) Initiative - Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation [417.01]
- Governments of the Republic of Korea and Sweden
- Ministry of Health & Welfare (MHOW), Republic of Korea [1345244495] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
A Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (TCV) is expected to acquire WHO prequalification soon, which will pave the way for its use in many low- and middle-income countries where typhoid fever is endemic. Thus it is critical to forecast future vaccine demand to ensure supply meets demand, and to facilitate vaccine policy and introduction planning. We forecasted introduction dates for countries based on specific criteria and estimated vaccine demand by year for defined vaccination strategies in 2 scenarios: rapid vaccine introduction and slow vaccine introduction. In the rapid introduction scenario, we forecasted 17 countries and India introducing TCV in the first 5 y of the vaccine's availability while in the slow introduction scenario we forecasted 4 countries and India introducing TCV in the same time period. If the vaccine is targeting infants in high-risk populations as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand peaks around 40 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. Similarly, if the vaccine is targeting infants in the general population as a routine single dose, the vaccine demand increases to 160 million doses per year under the rapid introduction scenario. The demand forecast projected here is an upper bound estimate of vaccine demand, where actual demand depends on various factors such as country priorities, actual vaccine introduction, vaccination strategies, Gavi financing, costs, and overall product profile. Considering the potential role of TCV in typhoid control globally; manufacturers, policymakers, donors and financing bodies should work together to ensure vaccine access through sufficient production capacity, early WHO prequalification of the vaccine, continued Gavi financing and supportive policy.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据