How Climate Change Will Affect Forest Composition and Forest Operations in Baden-Wurttemberg-A GIS-Based Case Study Approach

In order to accommodate foreseen climate change in European forests, the following are recommended: (i) to increase the number of tree species and the structural diversity; (ii) to replace unsuitable species by native broadleaved tree species, and (iii) to apply close-to-nature silviculture. The state forest department of Baden-Wurttemberg (BW) currently follows the concept of Forest Development Types (FDTs). However, future climatic conditions will have an impact on these types of forest as well as timber harvesting operations. This Geographic Information System (GIS)-based analysis identified appropriate locations for main FDTs and timber harvesting and extraction methods through the use of species suitability maps, topography, and soil sensitivity data. Based on our findings, the most common FDT in the state forest of BW is expected to be coniferous-beech mixed forests with 29.0% of the total forest area, followed by beech-coniferous (20.5%) and beech-broadleaved (15.4%) mixed forests. Where access for fully mechanized systems is not possible, the main harvesting and extraction methods would be motor manual felling and cable yarding (29.1%). High proportions of large dimensioned trees will require timber extraction using forestry tractors, and these will need to be operated from tractor roads on sensitive soils (23.0%), and from skid trails on insensitive soils (18.4%).