Association of time-varying clearance of nivolumab with disease dynamics and its implications on exposure response analysis

Nivolumab is a human monoclonal antibody that blocks the interaction between PD-1 programmed death-1 (PD-1) and its ligands, PD-L1 and PD-L2. Nivolumab demonstrated efficacy in clinical trials for various types of cancer. A time-varying clearance was identified for nivolumab. We show that the change of clearance over time is associated with the post-treatment effects: clearance decreases when disease status improves. This interaction between posttreatment effects and drug exposure may lead to a biased steep estimate of the exposure-response (E-R) relationship for efficacy. Under this scenario, simulations were performed to develop a proposed methodology to assess the causal effect of drug exposure upon clinical response. Data from nivolumab trials were subsequently used to verify the proposed methodology for E-R analysis. The results showed that E-R analysis results based on pharmacokinetic (PK) metrics derived from the first dose are more consistent with the true E-R or dose-response relationship than the steady-state PK metrics.