Analysing match attendance in the European Rugby Cup: Does uncertainty of outcome matter in a multinational tournament?

Research question: The paper analyses the determinants of attendances in rugby union's European Rugby Cup (ERC) and, in particular, whether uncertainty of outcome had a significant effect on spectator demand.Research methods: We use data on attendance from 1226 ERC group stage matches played between 1995/1996 and 2013/2014 to estimate a model of spectator demand for ERC matches.Results and findings: We find that short-run (match) uncertainty had little effect on attendances, whereas the strength of the home team had a significant effect on attendances. Medium-term uncertainty, that is, the possibility of the home team reaching the knock-out stages, had a significant impact on attendances.Implications: The findings are significant because the ERC was replaced with a new European Rugby Champions Cup (ERCC) from the beginning of the 2014/2015 season. Changes in the distribution of revenue between participating teams combined with increases in English and French teams' domestic league broadcast revenues suggest that the ERCC may be more unbalanced than the ERC. This has implications for the business models of clubs from smaller countries and their ability to compete and may lead to the emergence of an Anglo-French duopoly in the new competition.