The Influence of Climate Change on Coastal Erosion Vulnerability in Northeast Brazil

In this paper, an adapted methodology to evaluate coastal erosion vulnerability, which provides a basis for decision-making concerning risk management strategies, is described. The vulnerability evaluation was based on weighted indicators and assessed the vulnerability under different climate change scenarios. To generate the vulnerability index, dynamic processes, geo-indicators, and social and morphological parameters associated with modeled scenarios of sea level rise and predicted wave height changes were integrated. The study area included the sandy beaches in Pernambuco, NE Brazil, and was used to describe the practical application of this approach. Because the occupation of large sectors of the coastline was low, the vulnerability was concentrated in urbanized areas. The high-vulnerability sections of the coast were those with high population densities, high-rise buildings, induced coastal squeeze and hard engineering structures. The low-vulnerability beaches generally had low urbanization rates and well-conserved, resilient coastlines. Under future scenarios, the vulnerability of this coastal region will increase with sea level rise and wave height changes.