Impact of Volume Change Over Time on Trauma Mortality in the United States

Objective: To evaluate the association of trauma center volume change over time with mortality. Background: Regionalization of trauma systems assumes a volume-out-come relationship for severe injury. Whereas this has been shown for cross-sectional volume, it is unclear whether volume changes over time translate into predictable outcome changes. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of severely injured (injury severity score >15) patients from the National Trauma Databank 2000 to 2012. A center-level standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was constructed (ratio of observed to expected deaths). Expected mortality was obtained from multi-level logistic regression model, adjusting for demographics, mechanism, vital signs, and injury severity. Center-level percent volume change was assessed across early (2000-2006) and late (2007-2012) periods. Longitudinal panel modeling evaluated association between annual SMR change and volume change over preceding years. Results: There were 839,809 patients included from 287 centers. Each 1% increase in volume was associated with 73% increased odds of improving SMR over time [odds ratio (OR) 1.73; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.03-2.91; P = 0.03]. Each 1% decrease in volume was associated with 2-fold increase in odds of worsening SMR over time (OR 2.14; 95% CI 1.07-4.26, P = 0.03). Significant improvement in the SMR emerged after 3 or more preceding years of increasing volume (SMR change -0.008; 95% CI -0.015, -0.002; P = 0.01). This benefit occurred only in centers that were level I or II verified. Conclusions: Increasing volume was associated with improving outcomes, whereas decreasing volume was associated with worsening outcomes. High-level trauma center infrastructure seems to facilitate the volume-outcome relationship. The trauma center designation process should consider volume changes in the overall system.