Pathways to transformational change in the face of climate impacts: an analytical framework

Unprecedented impacts of climate change and climate variability in the twenty-first century are likely to require transformational social, organizational and human responses. Yet, little existing empirical work examines how decision-makers can facilitate such responses. This paper suggests that in order to assess whether responses to climate risks and threats are transformational, it is necessary to move away from a focus only on outcomes and scale and towards the multiple dimensions of social responses and the processes through which transformational changes are realized. In so doing, the paper seeks to move the discussion on transformational change towards the processes and sustainability of adaptation interventions, and the changes they trigger. Drawing on the literature on transformational change in organizational theory and social-ecological systems, the paper first develops a framework with which to examine and assess development and adaptation interventions. The framework is then applied to eight interventions made between 2005 and 2011 in diverse socioecological settings across Africa. All interventions were underpinned by participatory action research methodologies. Our analysis shows how a focus on change agents, generalizability of field-scale adaptation mechanisms and pathways, and sustainability of outcomes, combined with attention to the scale and scope of change processes, provides information that can inform policy on the kinds of intervention that are likely to support long-term and sustainable responses to climate impacts. Although several of the cases mainly illustrate incremental adaptations, use of the analytical framework pointed towards the wider processes of systems change that might lead to transformative trajectories.