期刊
NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE
卷 7, 期 6, 页码 417-+出版社
NATURE PORTFOLIO
DOI: 10.1038/NCLIMATE3275
关键词
-
资金
- National Science Foundation of China [41521004]
- China University Research Talents Recruitment Program (111 project) [B13045]
- foundation of Key Laboratory for Semi-Arid Climate Change of the Ministry of Education in Lanzhou University
- US National Science Foundation [AGS-1353740]
- US Department of Energy's Office of Science [DE-SC0012602]
- US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration [NA15OAR4310086]
- Directorate For Geosciences
- Div Atmospheric & Geospace Sciences [1353740] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
The Paris Agreement aims to limit global mean surface warming to less than 2 degrees C relative to pre-industrial levels(1-3). However, we show this target is acceptable only for humid lands, whereas drylands will bear greaterwarming risks. Over the past century, surface warming over global drylands (1.2-1.3 degrees C) has been 20-40% higher than that over humid lands (0.8-1.0 degrees C), while anthropogenic CO2 emissions generated from drylands (similar to 230 Gt) have been only similar to 30% of those generated from humid lands (similar to 750 Gt). For the twenty-first century, warming of 3.2-4.0 degrees C (2.4-2.6 degrees C) over drylands (humid lands) could occur when global warming reaches 2.0 degrees C, indicating similar to 44% more warming over drylands than humid lands. Decreased maize yields and runoff, increased long-lasting drought and more favourable conditions for malaria transmission are greatest over drylands if global warming were to rise from 1.5 degrees C to 2.0 degrees C. Our analyses indicate that similar to 38% of theworld's population living in drylandswould suffer the effects of climate change due to emissions primarily from humid lands. If the 1.5 degrees C warming limit were attained, the mean warming over drylands could be within 3.0 degrees C; therefore it is necessary to keep globalwarming within 1.5 degrees C to prevent disastrous effects over drylands.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据