Habitat variation, mutualism and predation shape the spatio-temporal dynamics of tansy aphids

1. Spatially distributed resources can lead to the formation of metapopulations, where individual subpopulations are often small and can experience frequent local extinction events followed by recolonisation. An example of terrestrial metapopulations are specialised phytophagous insects on their patchily distributed host plants. 2. The present study investigated the population dynamics of a specialised aphid (Metopeurum fuscoviride) on its patchily distributed host plant (Tanacetum vulgare) and associated community of mutualistic ants and predators in a small-scale field site. Furthermore, aphid habitat differences (plant size, C/N ratio, location and surrounding vegetation) were quantified, and seasonal timing and precipitation were considered. 3. Seasonal timing and precipitation both had effects on aphid colonisation, extinction events and aphid colony persistence. Towards the end of the season, and after higher precipitation, aphid colonisation events decreased and extinction events increased. Plant size and location as well as aphid within-field dispersal determined the spatio-temporal distribution of aphid colonies. 4. Mutualistic ants (Lasius niger and Myrmica rubra) increased the chance of establishment of aphid colonies. However, when M. rubra was tending, aphid colony persistence was reduced. Aphid persistence and extinction were dependent on aphid abundance, as a higher colony size reduced the probability of extinction by predation. 5. The results emphasise the importance of dispersal limitation, population growth and the presence of mutualists when studying the spatio-temporal dynamics of tansy aphids, particularly in a small-scale field site.