Optical Coherence Tomography Features Preceding the Onset of Advanced Age-Related Macular Degeneration

PURPOSE. Age-related macular degeneration (AMD) is a progressive disease with multifactorial etiology. There is a need to identify clinical features that are harbingers of advanced disease. We evaluated morphologic features of the retina and choroid on optical coherence tomography (OCT) to determine if they predict progression to advanced disease. METHODS. Progressors transitioned from early or intermediate AMD to advanced disease (n = 40 eyes), and were matched on baseline AMD grade and follow-up interval to nonprogressors who did not develop advanced AMD (n = 40 eyes). Features of the neurosensory retina, photoreceptors, retinal pigment epithelium (RPE), and choroid were evaluated. Logistic regression was used to evaluate univariate associations between features and progression to overall advanced AMD, geographic atrophy (GA), and neovascular disease (NV). Multivariate associations based on stepwise regression models were also assessed. RESULTS. Ellipsoid zone disruption was associated with progression to overall advanced AMD and NV (odds ratios [ORs]: 17.9 and 30.6; P < 0.001), with a similar trend observed for GA. Drusenoid RPE detachment, RPE thickening, and retinal pigmentary hyperreflective material were significantly associated with higher risk of progression to advanced AMD (ORs: 5.0-8.5) and NV (ORs: 10.8-17.2). Pigmentary hyperreflective material was associated with progression to GA (OR: 7.5, P = 0.009). Total retinal thickness, pigmentary hyperreflective material, nascent GA features, and choroidal vessel abnormalities were independently associated with progression to advanced AMD in a multivariate stepwise model. CONCLUSIONS. Abnormalities in the photoreceptors, retinal thickness, RPE, and choroid were associated with higher risk of developing advanced AMD. These findings provide insights into disease progression, and may be helpful to identify earlier endpoints for clinical studies.