期刊
BIOGEOSCIENCES
卷 14, 期 22, 页码 5053-5067出版社
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
DOI: 10.5194/bg-14-5053-2017
关键词
-
资金
- project LUC4C - European Commission [603542]
- European Research Council through Synergy grant [ERC-2013-SyG-610028]
- German Research Foundation's Emmy Noether Program [PO 1751/1-1]
- Swiss National Science Foundation
- FP7 funding through project EMBRACE [282672]
- UK Natural Environment Research Council Joint Weather and Climate Research Programme
- Vetenskapsradet (Swedish Research Council) [621-2014-4266]
The use of dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) to estimate CO2 emissions from land-use and land-cover change (LULCC) offers a new window to account for spatial and temporal details of emissions and for ecosystem processes affected by LULCC. One drawback of LULCC emissions from DGVMs, however, is lack of observation constraint. Here, we propose a new method of using satellite-and inventory-based biomass observations to constrain historical cumulative LULCC emissions (E-LUC(c)) from an ensemble of nine DGVMs based on emerging relationships between simulated vegetation biomass and E-LUC(c). This method is applicable on the global and regional scale. The original DGVM estimates of E-LUC(c) range from 94 to 273 PgC during 1901-2012. After constraining by current biomass observations, we derive a best estimate of 155 +/- 50 PgC (1 sigma Gaussian error). The constrained LULCC emissions are higher than prior DGVM values in tropical regions but significantly lower in North America. Our emergent constraint approach independently verifies the median model estimate by biomass observations, giving support to the use of this estimate in carbon budget assessments. The uncertainty in the constrained Ec LUC is still relatively large because of the uncertainty in the biomass observations, and thus reduced uncertainty in addition to increased accuracy in biomass observations in the future will help improve the constraint. This constraint method can also be applied to evaluate the impact of land-based mitigation activities.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据